Lens and PSG: A historic title race?
Lens and PSG continue to be separated by just a point atop the Ligue 1 McDonald's table -- but is this a historically close title race? We take a closer look at the historical numbers
The second half of the season is underway! And while it's been very rare to see a team other than PSG crowned autumn champions in recent seasons, it's indeed RC Lens who sit at the top of the table before this 19th matchday of Ligue 1 McDonald's. The leaders have a one-point advantage over Paris Saint-Germain in a season of exceptional suspense. Is this a truly exceptional margin at the top? Let's find out...
Is it rare for the gap to be this close?
Yes.
In the 21st century, this is only the fourth time there has been a one-point difference (or less) between the top two teams in the standings. Specifically, this is the third time the difference has been one point, and only in the 2012/2013 season was there a perfect tie in points between the two leading teams (PSG and Lyon in that case). It's worth noting that in the 21st century, the average difference between the leader and the runner-up at this stage of the season is 6 points.
Dembélé makes it look so easy 🎯 pic.twitter.com/XeezaEWhB3
— Ligue 1 English (@Ligue1_ENG) January 20, 2026
When the race is this close, does the leader crack under pressure?
Often.
In the three previous instances where the gap was one point or less at the halfway point of the season, the team leading at the winter break only went on to win the title once! That was PSG in 2012/2013. In both 2002/2003 and 2020/2021, the team leading at the halfway point didn't maintain their lead, but interestingly, it wasn't the team in second place at the halfway point that ultimately benefited. To put it another way: when the title race is as close as it is this season in the 21st century, the team in second place at the halfway point never ends up winning the league title.
Autumn champion = champion?
Sometimes...
Since 2000, the team leading at the halfway point has gone on to win the French league title 16 out of 26 times (61% of the time). If we only consider the last 10 seasons, the autumn champion has converted their lead into a title 8 times. And under QSI ownership, when PSG is the autumn champion, Paris has always finished as champion at the end of the season except once (10 out of 11 times, with the exception of the 2011/2012 season when Montpellier won the title).
Lens keep winning… and they face Marseille next week! 🔥🥵 pic.twitter.com/miRJzQSir8
— Ligue 1 English (@Ligue1_ENG) January 17, 2026
Are RC Lens overperforming?
Hard to say.
Can we really say that this RC Lens team is overperforming? What is certain is that Lens has never been on such a high pace in the 21st century in the top flight. They are currently averaging 2.35 points per game, better than in 2022/2023, the season that qualified them for the Champions League (2.32 points per game at the halfway point). The current RC Lens team also has its highest average number of goals scored (1.82 per game) but only the 3rd best defensive record over the period.
Are PSG performing worse than usual?
Yes.
With 2.29 points per game at this stage of the season, Paris Saint-Germain has only its 10th best points average over the last 15 seasons, (ie the QSI era). Their average number of goals scored and conceded also doesn't stand out positively.
With Lens facing a tricky match against Marseille and PSG traveling to a desperate Auxerre, we could see another turn in this riveting tale -- be sure to follow all the action this weekend across Ligue 1 McDonald's
