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180 minutes to survive: the final sprint in the Ligue 1 McDonald's relegation battle

Angers, Nantes and Le Havre have it all to play for — while Saint-Étienne need a miracle. Here's how the race to avoid the drop is shaping up with 180 minutes left of the season.
George Boxall
Published on 05/08/2025 at 13:00
3-minute read
With Montpellier already down, five clubs remain locked in a dramatic race to avoid the drop in the last two Ligue 1 McDonald's rounds of the season.

With Montpellier already relegated, five teams are now scrambling to secure their Ligue 1 McDonald's status heading into the final two matchdays. Angers’ huge win at Nantes and Le Havre’s late comeback at Auxerre may have shifted the momentum, but nothing is guaranteed — especially not for Saint-Étienne, who are staring into the abyss.

Angers (14th, 33 pts, GD -20)

The big winners of Matchday 32, Angers grabbed a priceless 1-0 win at Nantes — leapfrogging their direct rivals and opening up a six-point gap over the relegation zone. With a favourable goal difference over Saint-Étienne (-20 vs -39), they could secure survival as soon as Saturday if results go their way. Opta predicts that SCO have an 11.41% probability of dropping into the relegation play-off zone.

  • 🗓️ Next matches:
    🏠 vs Strasbourg (MD33)
    🚗 at Lyon (MD34
  • 🔍 Outlook: Avoiding the play-off place is now the key. A win over Strasbourg could be enough.

Le Havre (16th, 31 pts, GD -30)

Down 1-0 at Auxerre with 10 minutes left, Le Havre fought back to win 2-1 thanks to a freak own goal and a stoppage-time header. That puts them in the play-off spot — but just two points behind Angers and one behind Nantes, with a lifeline in hand. Opta states that the Normand side have a 72.91% chance of finishing in the relegation play-off spot, whilst there is a 6.82% chance the club is directly relegated.

  • 🗓️ Next matches:
    🏠 vs Marseille (MD33)
    🚗 at Strasbourg (MD34)
  • 🔍 Outlook: Tough, but not impossible. Four points from two might be enough — depending on Nantes and Angers.

The Pressure points: Worry for Saint-Étienne , Reims and Nantes nervous

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Saint-Étienne (17th, 27 pts, GD -39)

The biggest losers of the weekend, ASSE were beaten 3-1 at home by Monaco — and time is running out. Direct survival is now a fantasy; even a play-off spot will require two wins and a slip from Le Havre or Nantes.

According to the Opta probability table, Sainté have a 5.57% chance of reaching the relgation play-offs, whilst, a direct return to Ligue 2 BKT is already set at 92.91%.

  • 🗓️ Next matches:
    🚗 at Reims (MD33)
    🏠 vs Toulouse (MD34)
  • 🔍 Outlook: It's win or bust. Anything less than 6 points and they’re down.

Nantes (15th, 32 pts, GD -28)

Losing 1-0 at home to Angers was a serious setback. Nantes are now just one point clear of the play-off place and must dig deep — though their fixture list is more forgiving than others.

There is a 5.37% probability that Nantes could drop into the relegation play-off zone, according to Opta - whilst the club have a 0.27% chance of being directly relegated in the final two games.

  • 🗓️ Next matches:
    🚗 at Auxerre (MD33)
    🏠 vs Montpellier (MD34)
  • 🔍 Outlook: Win one, maybe survive. Win two, safety guaranteed.

Reims (13th, 34 pts, GD -11)

They lost 1-0 at Nice, but with the best goal difference of any relegation-threatened side, Reims remain well-placed. However, they host a desperate Saint-Étienne side on Saturday — a potential banana skin.

Opta put Reims at a 3.74% chance of finishing in the relegation play-off spot, with a 0% chance of being directly relegated.

  • 🗓️ Next matches:
    🏠 vs Saint-Étienne (MD33)
    🚗 at Lille (MD34)
  • 🔍 Outlook: A point against ASSE may be enough. But lose that game, and the pressure will mount quickly.

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