Champions League: The Scenarios for French Clubs

The four French clubs competing in the Champions League are enjoying an exceptional league phase. With a win rate of 54% this season (13 out of 24 matches), Ligue 1 McDonald’s representatives are achieving a record score not seen since the 2009/10 season!

However, with two matchdays left, no qualification is yet fully secured. Let’s review the certainties for the four French clubs.

What We Know

Brest and LOSC are One Point Away from Qualification

The two best-ranked French clubs (Brest 7th and LOSC 8th) are having a historic campaign. The Dogues had never recorded four wins after six games in the competition. With 13 points on the board, both clubs need just one more point to officially secure their place in the Top 24.

In any case, it is certain that at least one of the two will progress to the next round, even if they were to lose their final two matches in the competition.

At Least Two French Clubs Will Qualify

Thanks to their 13 points, Brest and LOSC are no longer under threat from 27th-placed Donetsk. Additionally, PSG (25th) and Stuttgart (26th), who face each other on Matchday 8, cannot both secure maximum points (6) and thus surpass them.

As a result, even if Brest and Lille fail to earn another point in their remaining two games, they cannot both be ousted from the Top 24.

If one of them were to drop below 24th place, it would directly benefit AS Monaco. Currently 16th with 10 points, the club from the Principality would capitalize on a slip by one of the other French teams. Opta’s prediction tool confirms this, giving Monaco a 97.9% chance of finishing in the Top 24.

This guarantees at least two French clubs in the Top 24.

Top 8: Slim Hopes for Monaco, Out of Reach for PSG

Conversely, AS Monaco has only a slim chance (3.3%) of finishing among the top eight. As for PSG, currently the first team set for elimination (25th), their only remaining hope is to secure a place in the Top 24 to continue their journey, as the Top 8 is now out of reach. According to Opta, the Parisians have a 64.7% chance of reaching the playoffs.

Interconnected Fates

The qualifications of French clubs depend heavily on one another’s performances, starting with PSG’s results (25th).

While Lille and Brest are safe from simultaneous elimination, one of them could still miss out depending on PSG’s fate.

If PSG were to lose both of their remaining games (against Manchester City and Stuttgart) and these two opponents win their other league phase matches (against Club Brugge for Manchester City and Bratislava for Stuttgart), it would be possible for Lille or Brest to be overtaken in the standings.